Thursday 24 April 2008

No harm in being wrong, sometimes

The following article is by Michael White from today's Guardian:

A voracious reader like Gordon Brown must be familiar with Keynes' wit as well as his wisdom. "When the facts change, I change my mind," the great economist once remarked. He also said: "There is no harm in being sometimes wrong - especially if one is promptly found out."

But which is it in the current mystery of the 10p tax rate? As everyone now knows, in last years's budget, Brown's 11th, the then-chancellor abolished a rate he had himself introduced. The Institute of Fiscal Studies predicted the move might hurt 3.5 million low-paid workers (it was actually 5.3 million), but were told they were wrong. So was Tony Blair, then prime minister.


Did Brown deceive MPs in 2007, or himself? David Cameron and George Osborne are sure they know. No 10 only listens when it faces defeat, says the Conservative leader. Last night his precocious sidekick said: "Gordon Brown has been found out. I have always believed he is a man who puts calculation before conviction." Lethal words if the Tories can make them stick.

Labour MPs whose anxieties were rebuffed by the Treasury in 2007 have since met constituents with pay slips proving the Treasury wrong, by £50 a year here, £200 there: a lot to people on the edge. "I don't think Gordon was telling lies, he might have believed it," says one.


"Gordon thought he'd done poverty and wouldn't listen to anyone telling him he hadn't," argues a more waspish colleague. Both have received "I'll never vote Labour again" letters from pensioners who cannot recoup lost cash.


Frank Field raised the standard of revolt. Brown was adamant against retreat until he heeded rebel threats and embraced Alistair Darling's more flexible position on Monday.

One politician's U-turn is another's sensible adjustment. Margaret Thatcher was brilliant at U-turns. When the miners called her bluff on pit closures in 1981, she overruled her energy secretary, capitulated and bided her time for a rematch. Most voters are less interested in the finer points of U-turns than politicians and pundits. If ministers get it right in the end, voters are not bothered how they got there. When backbench MPs bring governments to heel, voters should rejoice. So No 10 must endure media jeers and insist it is doing "the right thing in the long term". Admirable or rigid, its next big test is the vote on the 42-day pre-charge detention. It has been postponed.

I'm putting strong store on the thought "If ministers get it right in the end, voters are not bothered how they got there." We shall see on Thursday if voters think we got it right!

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